About Anti-Fragility and Hope1
Our Canadian friends Prathyu and Hari texted us this week that they are boycotting everything US. Hopefully we are excluded from that boycott. This was a reminder that the world order and the diplomatic norms that have stood us in good stead are on shaky ground. It is somewhat unsettling that the foundational layers are shifting and changing. Earlier in the week my good friend Lori had texted me a Tolkien quote . In the Fellowship of the Rings, Gandalf says “Despair is only for those who see the end beyond all doubt. We do not”. These two disparate thoughts have been shuttling around in my head all week. One about resilience and robustness of our institutions and another about the importance of hope.
In Antifragile Nassim Nicholas Taleb argues that Antifragile systems are strengthened by disorder and stressors. Let us hope that our world order is one of those. The argument is also that the opposite of “fragile” is not “resilient” but anti-fragile. Implying that these systems gain from the disruptions. The world order that has brought the longest sustained period of peace and prosperity to the world has been under stress for the past few years. A war in the middle east which added more complexity and uncertainty to the existing volatile mix of the ongoing fallout from Putin’s folly, AI driven economic anxiety, and many others. The stressors are mounting.
At such a time it is easy to lose hope so Lori’s note was timely. It would be arrogant of me to think that I know how the future unfolds, and the words of Gandalf the Wise are a useful reminder. The future is yet to be written, hope is the braver and humbler stance to take.
One of the most thoughtful book gifts I have ever received is “Theo of Golden” from my friend Kelly Ann earlier this year. Kelly Ann knew that my reading had been mostly limited to non-fiction these past few years and wanted to help me discover a few new authors and books. If you are looking for renewed hope in humanity, read Theo of Golden (you don’t have to just take my word for it, Oprah says so too). And Kelly Ann assures me that there are many Theos out there. Gestures small and local are sufficient contributions to write a better future. I saw a small new item this week that Tom Hanks might play the main character in a movie adaptation of Theo Of Golden (why is it always Tom Hanks?).
I, like many parents, read books to my kids to get them to sleep. But stories held their attention too much and I would have to read for a long time. So, I thought I could trick them and read poems instead. That didn’t work too well because I spent the same amount of time reading poems, I think. One of their favorites was Emily Dickinson. When we talk of hope, we can always turn to her for the final word.
Hope' is the thing with feathers - " (314)
By Emily Dickinson
“Hope” is the thing with feathers -
That perches in the soul -
And sings the tune without the words -
And never stops - at all -
And sweetest - in the Gale - is heard -
And sore must be the storm -
That could abash the little Bird
That kept so many warm -
I’ve heard it in the chillest land -
And on the strangest Sea -
Yet - never - in Extremity,
It asked a crumb - of me.
1 The web thumnail this week is “Hope” By George Frederic Watts and workshop - Google Arts & Culture — CgGv3RqPFUZk4A Tate Images (http://www.tate-images.com/results.asp?image=N01640&wwwflag=3&imagepos=1), Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=13466071