Risk Perception
Why are we comfortable checking our phone going 70 mph down the highway (admit it, you are guilty and so am I) but turn to prayer and white knuckling the armrest during standard turbulence at cruise in a modern airliner? A weekend ski trip, training for the marathon or a scuba dive on vacation are treated as positive recreational experiences while stepping onto your flight to Tampa is an anxiety inducing chore. I was glad to see the recent analysis from Embry Riddle “Comparative Risk Metrics for U.S. Commercial Aviation” which provides an excellent set of comparative statistics to highlight this difference in risk perception. I read the report (so that you don’t have to) and here are some findings of interest:
How much risk is incurred for each mile of travel?

and one more, the comparative fatality risk per event, What is the risk associated with taking a single trip?

The report contains more comparisons including annual risk, lifetime odds and risk per hour of exposure. So if drowning or submersion in a bathtub (3 times more risky) or running a marathon (78 times more risky) are more dangerous why does air travel induce a greater dread?
Commonly we explain this paradox a few different ways:
The Illusion of Control: There are several suggestions in places such as this reddit thread. For instance, one of them is about the illusion of control with driving. As the quote below illustrates, psychologists know that human comfort is directly tied to a sense of agency. You hold the wheel, you brake, you turn or accelerate (does that mean we will come to have similar concerns about self driving cars in the future?). Walking onto your flight you give up your agency in the matter of your personal safety to anonymous strangers behind closed doors, even though they are highly trained professionals backed by highly redundant layers of technology. You feel more comfortable on flights where a competent looking captain makes a personal visit to the back of the aircraft.
You can usually get out of a car in most normal circumstances. Engine failure, fire, those type of things. Pull over and get out. In a plane you can be at best 15 minutes to safety even near an airport.
Media amplification of aviation accidents: Commercial aviation accidents are rare. So when they happen the event is in the public’s face for days and weeks on end. Add the fact that catastrophic aviation accidents have multiple casualties and the availability heuristic, an aviation accident is easily visualized and our evolutionary wiring easily characterizes these as more frequent than they really are.
Dread risk vs continuous risk: I didn’t have a named concept for this distinction till I started researching for the newsletter this week. A small excerpt from the paper that introduces the concept is given below. To quote from the paper “…"dread risk," is defined at its high end by perceived lack of control, dread, catastrophic potential, fatal consequences, and the inequitable distribution of risks and benefits”. We possess a deep, primal fear of "dread events"—rare, sudden, and highly concentrated catastrophes where a large number of people die simultaneously. And yet, we are statistically blind to "continuous risk"—the slow, steady, dispersed casualties of highway driving that silently claim vastly more lives annually than aviation ever could.

Perception of Risk Author(s): Paul Slovic Source: Science , Apr. 17, 1987, New Series, Vol. 236, No. 4799 (Apr. 17, 1987), pp. 280- 285 Published by: American Association for the Advancement of Science Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/1698637
Am I allocating my worry budget appropriately? Our brains were wired for the savanna, systematized statistical probabilities are a bit harder to internalize. The ERAU report is a good reminder to consciously realign our perceptions for actual risks in daily activities.